NFL Daily Presents: Week 8 ATS

My quick picks, plus Chris Mortensen from ESPN.

-Despite the loss of Marvin Harrison, the Colts offense is still the Colts offense. They'll still have Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark as receiving options, and Tony Dungy's mouth is watering at the thought of sending his defense after Vinny Testaverde. As long as the Indianapolis corners can keep up with Steve Smith and prevents the big play, the Colts should win by a healthy margin. Colts by TD+.
-I don't trust the Rams at all, but I can definitely see them beating Cleveland today. But until
they actually get a win, my pick is with the Browns plus a field goal. Jamal Lewis will be a big factor in this game if he plays.
-I'd like to be seeing eye dog optimistic about the Dolphins across the pond against the Giants, but my realism sticks out like Joe Theisman's leg when LT broke it in half. The Dolphins are banged up and awful, and the Giants could enjoy tea and warm beer on the sidelines as they celebrate their double digit win.
-Tarvaris is benched! There is hope in the greater Twin Cities area. Kelly Holcomb gives this team a chance to win, and Chris Mortensen believes that Adrian Peterson will carry the ball a lot more this week after Brad Childress was heavily criticized last Sunday for his play calling:
"After catching so much heat for this past week, I would bet Peterson gets 20-plus carries. But he can't lose a fumble inside his own red zone and expect to be rewarded."
But does Minnesota have a choice besides living and dying with Peterson? Given the Eagles' poor run defense, expect the AP train to blast full steam ahead and the Vikes will pull the upset.
-Pittsburgh really played well last week, but a loss will have Mike Tomlin's team motivated to give it their all in a contest where they could put the Bengals away. Cincy cannot expect another great output from Kenny Watson against the Steelers defense, and Carson Palmer does not have a good history against the Black & Gold. I'll take the Steelers, and the thermostat to turn up the heat on Marvin Lewis' seat.
-I am a believer in Jon Kitna. I am not a believer in the Bears. I do think that Cedric Benson could have a really good game against Detroit, but Chicago will fail in pass coverage and the Lions will pull the upset, if they stay away from Devin Hester.
-The Titans will neutralize the ground game and force Daunte Culpepper to throw. 7.5 is a large spread for this game, but I'm taking Tennessee to cover it anyway, but it wouldn't shock me if the Raiders kept this pretty close.
-Vilma is now out for the season, and Marshawn Lynch will bust a big one today. The Jets should look at the Bills as a team they should emulate. They're giving it their all every week despite several season ending injuries, and they made a change to a young, up and coming QB. Gimme the Bills, they scrap, the Jets are crap.
-The Bucs won't be able to run against the Jags defense, and Tampa will get blown out if they have as many turnovers as they did against Detroit last week. J-Ville needs to get their ground game going, because they don't want to have Quinn Gray throw on 3rd and longs. It'll be a close one, but I'll take the Jags on the road.
-San Diego will be charged up at home after the wildfires, and the city will rally around the team and scorch a helpless Houston team plus the 10.
-The Niners is another team I don't trust, especially since their going against a New Orleans team with a head of steam after a big division win against Atlanta.
-I may even pick New England to win on their bye week. The Redskins may have good corners, but they won't be able to keep up vertically with Moss, Stallworth, or Hester. Bill Bellichik will call more over the top than a hoops referee not betting on the game. But if I had to take Joey Crawford into my favorite casino, I'd tell him to put his Spurs money on New England.
-Isn't the Packers-Broncos game on Monday a really interesting one, Chris?
"It really is. The Packers are fresh off a bye and the Broncos made some nice adjustments during their bye week. I probably would lean toward the Broncos on this one, especially if Champ Bailey is healthy at CB for Denver."
This is a Denver secondary that will feed off of Brett Favre's gunslinger mentality. They have 2 stud corners which is important against a Green Bay team that has little to no running game. If Denver keeps the Pack passing attack and Jay Cutler under control, they'll come away with the win, and Denver will once again be a Broncos town again. (sorry, rox)