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Saturday, September 29, 2007

NFL ATS Week 4 Quickpicks

One year today, I decided to make a Sporting News blog and it was one of my better decisons. And 273 posts, over 126,0000 hits, 2 magazine publishings, a beat writer internship later I'd like to thank all my readers and writers for one amazing year and I hope that you continue to read this blog in addition to SprungOnSports2, which debuted a few weeks ago. Quickly, the football picks that are sure to fail, if you like losing. That's right Dolphins and Falcons fans, this one is probably not for you. My explanations in 5 words or less.

Matt Schaub gets his revenge. Texans over the Falcons.
Buffalo is worse than Atlanta. Jets over Bills.
Cincy was a huge fluke. Ravens all over Browns.
STL offense fractioned without Jackson. Cowboys rout Rams
No QB, no pass D. Lions upset Bears.
I trust Oakland, not Miami. Raiders over Dolphins.
Favre's record, Vikes can't score. Green Bay over Minnesota.
Experience big factor in division game. Seattle over the Niners.
This team's on another level. Steelers crush Cards.
Bucs must prove me wrong. Carolina over Tampa Bay.
KC's offense is offensive. LT!! Bolts charge Chiefs.
Denver can never beat Indy. Colts beat Broncos.
McNabb's back, Giants defense overmatched. Parakeets over Big Blue.
I spy weakness, Bengals D. Patriots bash Bengals.

Tuesday, September 25, 2007

Hockeytalk with EJ Hradek

The real posts will begin soon with all the news, notes, and analysis, but here are two questions I asked ESPN The Magazine's Hradek about some of the big stories, exclusively on SOS2.

SprungOnSports: How serious is the talk of expansion?
EJ Hradek: I think they're very serious. As I reported last February, the league is considering expanding to 32 teams. That would mean adding 2 and that Las Vegas is a likely spot for one of the new franchises. It's not a done deal by any stretch, but it is something the league is seriously considering. And TV mogul Jerry Bruckheimer is very interested in being involved with a new team in Las Vegas. I think it would be great to have someone with Bruckheimer's background and real passion for hockey involved on an ownership level.

SprungOnSports: What's your take on the Ranger-Islander game last night? Will this provide a spark for the Isles to start the season off well?
EJ Hradek: Well, I think sometimes those things are overrated. I think that in some ways that's short term. The season is long. With that said, I'm sure the Islanders felt good about the fact that teammates stuck up for one another and were working together. From that standpoint, it doesn't hurt.

NFL Daily Presents: NFL Analytical Assault Week3

There were great performances, awful jerseys, and surprises from 3-0 all the way down to 0-3. Scouts INC analysts Ken Moll and Matt Williamson chime in as well.

- Two surprises hit the first game of the week, Green Bay's great 3-0 start led by a stout defense and a good ball moving offense led by 420 TD passer Brett Favre who led a furious comeback ending in a Greg Jennings score. Then there are the 1-2 Chargers who can't seem to get LaDanian Tomlinson in any kind of rhythm, and he fought on the sideline with Phil Rivers to boot, who played catch well with Gates until the final drive where Nick Barnett picked him off to seal the deal. The big question is how much do the Bolts miss Marty Schottenheimer. Considering their 14-2 mark last year and their current status, I'd say a whole hell of a lot. A trend is starting for the Chargers that no team will run on them because they're just awful against the pass. New England was first to exploit this, and then Green Bay only ran the ball 13 times compared to throwing it 45 times. A 3-1 pass-run ratio should probably clue Ron Rivera in that the pass coverage is costing them games, and more trouble will arise if the problem can't be quelled.
- What wasn't a surprise was how the Vikings offense disappeared in the 2nd half against Kansas City, which allowed the Chiefs to come back and take Minnesota 13-10. Larry Johnson can't for the life of him get it going on offense, but still won despite a ghastly 1.6 yards per rushing attempt. That's because Damon Huard stepped up and threw for a high percentage (20/29) including the game winning strike to emerging rookie Dwayne Bowe. The Chiefs were also a decent 6/15 on 3rd downs and just got by with a win.
- New England may have gotten down early in the game, but was there realy a doubt to this outcome? JP Losman got hurt and was replaced by rookie Trent Edwards, who may have a better chance at leading this Buffalo team than Losman. I don't care if Marshawn Lynch played like Barry Sanders, your team can't win with 83 total passing yards. This team's in trouble, and it may be a good time to give Edwards a chance. I may not be a Stanford man like Edwards was, but I know enough to realize that the Bills are going nowhere. Tom Brady was magnificent, only throwing 6 incompletions and averaging over 10 yards per attempt. Maroney broke 100 on less then 20 carries, and were able to get Sammy Morris a good amount of touches to keep the defense honest. It was just like Christmas in April for Brady when the Pats traded for Randy Moss and Wes Welker, as the team has more weapons than a certain visiting Middle Eastern President. 34 minutes with the ball and very good secondary play holding Lee Evans to one reception allowed New England to once again dominate.
- The Jets finally got a win as Thomas Jones and Leon Washington were factors in a win over Miami. New York however, allowed the Dolphins to come back in the 4th after Gang Green seemingly put the game away at 31-13. Trent Green performed very well, and Ronnie Brown accounted for over 200 yards total offense and 3 scored. Chris Chambers continues to play well also. Matt Williamson commented on the Miami offense and the two teams in general:
"They did (a nice job on offense) and R Brown had a real big game. Still, I thought that was a close game between two pretty bad teams with poor talent in the trenches."
- With ugly jerseys and high scores, I thought that the Arena League came a bit early to the Linc, but that was Donovan McNabb coming up with a huge game to silence his critics and hooking up with Kevin Curtis to the tune of 42 first half points in a huge win over a Lions defense that got more scorched than the Russian soil during the Napoleonic Era. Westbrook also had a monster game, as did Kitna and Williams for Detroit. Can the Eagles attack perform even half as well against the Giants next week? But back to the jerseys, were those the ugliest duds ever worn in a game, Matt Williamson?
"Not sure on that one, but those Eagles' throwbacks really made my head hurt."
The Philly offense made my head spin, and may have given a migraine or two to the Lions staff.
- Is it just me, or is Pittsburgh making it look easy? Mike Tomlin did a tremendous job opening up the offense, Willie Parker was a beast, and the defense and special teams each had a TD. If a Steelers fan can't smile about that, his mouth must be wired shut. Alex Smith looked puzzled in the 4th quarter, and Frank Gore couldn't really get anything going. The 49ers shouldn't be discouraged though, they were flat out beat by a black and gold machine.
- Perhaps one discouraged team should be the Rams. Bulger has bad ribs, the offensive line is a MASH unit, Steven Jackson will miss at least a week, and you're 0-3. Tampa Bay got great running games from Michael Pittman and the unlikely Earnest Graham who scored 2 TD's in the 4th to seal the deal. Are the Bucs for real? There has been a recent trend over the years of cellar dwellers winning the NFC South the next year, you never know in this division.
- Ken Whisenhunt went back to college on Sunday, putting Kurt Warner in on no huddle situations and leading a furious comeback that almost materialized against Baltimore. The coach obviously knows what works against the Ravens D from his years at Pittsburgh, but what does it say about Matt Leinart, when he was yanked twice during the contest? The plan is fantastic in a vacuum, but not when emotions and confidence levels are put into the equation. The McNoller QB combo did well for Baltimore, but not as well as Willis McGahee or Anquan Boldin, who lit up the B'More back 4. Ken Moll talked about the Ravens chances this season:
"They have a chance if they can continue to play solid defense. I Know the Cardinals came back but Lewis and the Boys are excellent and they have a chance to be a wild card team. Steelers win the division if they continue to play (well)."
- You almost feel that the Colts never feel that they're going to lose, despite the close results of the games they play. Their special teams allowed another kickoff return to the house to open the game, but Manning and co never panicked, and Addai ran for 2 scores. Schaub played decently, but you can't expect him to do it all himself. The Texans had 40 total rushing yards, and that's why they lost. Unacceptable!
- If you wanna talk about a team dominating the line of scrimmage, you'll talk about what Jacksonville did to Denver on Sunday. The Jags had the ball for almost 39 minutes, rushed the ball 47 times at exactly 4 yards a rush, and held the Broncos to 47 yards rushing. The only reason why Denver was in the game was because of Brandon Marshall, who had a monster game. The Denver rush D needs to perform better or this team won't be reaching the postseason.
- What goes around comes around, right Raiders? The timeout that doomed them against Denver, saved them in a tight one against Cleveland? If this timeout thing is some sort of chain, then the Ravens should watch out next week. McCown and co started off with a 16-0 lead, and then the Browns came storming back with special teams and good days from Winslow and Edwards. But both teams aren't that good, and a time out was the difference. It looks like ice is hot, especially with the game on the line.
- The Bengals converted 11 times on 18 3rd downs and lost, because they turned the ball over 4 times. Rudi Johnson had 17 carries for 9 yards, and Seattle was able to escape with a win because nobody decided to cover Nate Burleson. Alexander had a nice game, and it looks like the Seahawks are back on track.
- If the Falcons still can't win when Joey Harrington has a monster day, I don't know when they'll get a victory. Foster played well to help out a team that had to change QB's because of an injury, and the Falcons are incredibly pathetic. I don't want to get cursed out like a Cubs fan did to me yesterday, so I'll stop here. I'll just say that the Falcons will be on the clock in April.
- The Giants knew that they're season was on the line, and they responded in the 2nd half. Tom Coughlin hasn't lost his team yet, and the Redskins have finally gone back down to earth where they belong. In the 4th quarter, either Joe Gibbs forgot how to coach, had a bad day, can't coach anymore, or had a stroke close to the goal line. There was no need to rush, especially with an inexperienced QB, and they missed a golden opportunity to go to 3-0. If the Giants played like they did in the 2nd half all the time, they could be good but this looks like a lost cause. So after this game, are the Redskins contenders or pretenders? Ken Moll has the answer:
"I tend to believe that they are Pretenders as they just don't have enough continutiy yet on either side of the ball. "
I tend to believe that you're right.
- It was pretty bad in the 2nd half for the Bears. Grossman was awful, they lost defensive players to injuries, and they got their behinds handed to them by Dallas, who were firing on all cylinders again. They realized that the run wasn't working, so they chucked it. I like to call it anti-Charger technology, but it applied to Chicago as well. You think Mike Martz saw this game and had a sick, sadistic smile on his face? You know he did.
- The Saints have crumbled. Drew Brees is not a good QB when he has to throw too many times, and he may have to now that Deuce McAllister is out for the year. They tried to make all the big plays instead of using a power running game more. ESPN analyst Mark Schlereth described the Saints offense as "Too much icing, not enough cake." I could not have said it better myself and gotten hungry at the same time. The Titans were also hungry, as Keith Bullock had 3 picks, controlled the clock, and allowed VY to manage the game well. Tennessee could be this year's Saints, and I gotta go grab some cake.

Monday, September 24, 2007

College Football Fallout

Conference play has started with more colossal upsets, and the men are starting to separate themselves from the boys, especially in the SEC.

- Just when you thought Miami was down and out, they come up with a gigantic home win against rankes A&M. Maybe this will turn it around for the 'Canes.
- I thought that Tulsa would give Oklahoma a run, but the Sooners just exploded to the tune of 62 points in a nice noncon road win.
- South Florida continues to assert itself as a rising power as they destroyed UNC and are now probably the 2nd best team in the Big East behind West Virginia. That's right Rutgers, play someone good outside of your conference and maybe you'll be in this discussion one day.
- Illinois is 3-1 and could easily reach a bowl game this year.
- I never thought that Syracuse would beat anyone this year, but Louisville on the road? They scored 38 when it seemed like they were averaging 4.8 points per game? Needless to say, I'm ecstatic, but also shocked at how bad the Cardinals defense was. They got lit by a good Kentucky team, but giving up big play after big play against the Orange. That'll have any defense feeling green with embarrassment. It seems like they only have talent on one side of the ball
- Clemson is an impressive 4-0, but is this just one of those fast starting Tiger teams that will fade in mid October and November? Only time will tell, because there will always be doubters 'till you do it.
- Virginia's 3-0 in ACC play after a big home win over Georgia Tech, who have had a rough start to conference play after falling to BC last week. West Virginia keeps rollin.
- Any road game in the SEC is tough, and Florida realized that but pulled it together and barely squeaked by Ole Miss. The Gators may have escaped this time, but there will be road tests much tougher then this.
- Nebraska may have still been playing on a hangover from their pasting at the hands of USC, but they barely beat Ball State. They need to get it together and win the Big 12 North.
- Another Heisman effort for Matt Ryan as BC blitzed Army. They may just come out of the ACC if they beat VaTech later in the year.
- Missouri's 4-0 and they're cracking the top 25. Props to the Tigers.
- Air Force looked completely grounded at BYU as the Cougars come up with a big home win over the Falcons.
- What can you say about Notre Dame? You almost feel bad for them until you realize that they're the Irish.
- South Carolina gave LSU a little scare, but the Tigers showed why they're tops in the SEC by beating a very good Gamecock team. Spurrier may have lost this time, but he's building quite a program down there.
- There may not have been a bigger win for Michigan in a long time, as they asserted themselves in the Big House with an even larger win over Penn State. Don't be surprised if the Wolverines reel off a few wins here in a row.
- If you haven't believed in Kentucky until now, you should probably start. They went on the road and knocked off McFadden and Arkansas by double digits in Little Rock. Has UK Football surpassed its Basketball program? Say it 'aint so!!
- Willie Tuitama had a good game for Arizona, but Cal was too much for them, putting up 45 in the win.
- UConn is 4-0 and rattled off a big win at Pitt, the Huskies look like they'll be going bowling.
- After struggling against inferior noncon opponents, Colt McCoy finally shined as Texas obliterated Rice and will go into conference play on a high.
- Kansas is 4-0, watch out for them in the Big 12 North.
- Cincinnati is 4-0 after they routed Marshall. The Herd is winless since that awful movie came out.
- Game of the day in Tuscaloosa, as Georgia rising star QB Matthew Stafford threw a TD pass on the first play of their OT possession to seal a 26-23 win over 'Bama who had to come back from several defecits. Kudos to the Tide for coming back, but Mark Richt and co may have just taken the next step.
- Wazzu is a good team, but John David Booty and USC make it look so easy at home. I want to see them go on the road in conference play.
- Iowa's offense may not be up to speed yet, but there defense looked great in their loss at Wisconsin. PJ Hill looks legit, folks.
- Don't look now, but Purdue is 4-0 and host Notre Dame this week. Watch out for the Boilermakers.
- Arizona State is 4-0, as is Oregon who actually trailed Stanford at halftime before outscoring the Cardinal on the road 31-0 in the 2nd half. Watch out for these two teams to spoil the USC and Cal party in the Pac 10.
- UCLA needed a win in a major way after getting blasted by Utah, so they put up 44 on a talented Washington team.
- Hawaii scored 66, I'd want to see a top 10 defense stop this team, 'cause I don't think that they'd be able to.

Baseball Playoff Preview

Let’s start in the American League where a new rule could change the playoffs this year. The team with the league’s best record will get to choose whether they want to start the postseason on October 3rd or October 4th because of a new TV schedule during the postseason. There’s an extra off day between games 4 and 5 of the Division Series this year, and the team that has that extra day off would be able to use their starters from games 1 and 2 on full rest for games 4 and 5. This may sound complicated, but it has major ramifications for the playoffs.
The Boston Red Sox are in the playoffs this year, and have gotten in with pitching and stellar bullpen play rather then from their usual offensive ways. Josh Beckett has emerged as the leading candidate for the AL Cy Young award, and is backed up by Curt Schilling and Japanese rookie Daisuke Matsuzaka. The bullpen has been great this season with Mike Timlin, trade acquisition Eric Gagne, and rookie Hideki Okajima to set up closer Jonathan Papelbon. But the bullpen has struggled as of late, and Matsuzaka and Okajima have been tired of late, and the team has fallen on hard times. Their pitching staff could have more questions then an SAT exam right now, and Manny Ramirez has been injured of late. Given their recent poor play, they’d probably take the extra day off to rest their players. David Ortiz still makes this lineup tick despite a sub par season, but this team seems to be fading.
One team I would not want to face in the playoffs are the Cleveland Indians. Sure they lack experience, but they possess the best 1-2 starting pitching combination in the game with C.C. Sabathia and Fausto Carmona with solid starting possibilities in Paul Byrd and Jake Westbrook. The team also has a very good offense, with speedy Grady Sizemore setting the table for monster mashers Victor Martinez and Travis Hafner, and a team with five 20 home run players. The weak point of this team could be their closer Joe Borowski, who may lead the AL in saves, but has an E.R.A. of almost 5 with a lot of blown games. If Sabathia and Carmona get to start two games each on regular rest, they’ll be hard to beat in the ALDS and beyond.
If the Los Angeles Angels get home field throughout the playoffs, they may be the favorites to win their first World Series since 2002 because of their major league leading home record and a phenomenal bullpen to go along with an NL style lineup led by Vladamir Guerrero. Their team doesn’t supply a lot of power, but they steal bases, execute the hit & run, and scratch and claw their way to victory led by Chone Figgins, Orlando Cabrera, and Reggie Willits. John Lackey has been a valuable ace, and surprising Kelvim Escobar is the second starter, and the 8th and 9th are covered with Scott Shields setting up Francisco Rodriguez.
It’s been a wild ride for the Yankees, but another October appearance is on the horizon. You know about their potent offense led by Alex Rodriguez, but will this year be another disappointment for A-Rod? Derek Jeter is always clutch in the postseason, but he can’t start games at Pitcher. After Chien Ming Wang, nobody knows what Pettitte and Mussina will do in their old age. Even Mariano Rivera has looked shaky of late, but rookie sensation Joba Chamberlain looks like the setup bridge that the team has lacked since the championship days.
People may not be paying attention but with a week left in the regular season, Arizona owns the NL’s best record. Nobody stands out in that lineup, but 9 players have double figures in home runs led by rookie Chris Young who has 32. Orlando Hudson is the veteran leader, and Eric Byrnes is the vocal guy with almost 50 steals to back it up. They have a 32-18 mark in 1 run games, which usually bodes well for the postseason. Brandon Webb leads the starting staff, and Livan Hernandez and Doug Davis provide experience but not much else. The bullpen led by Jose Valverde has been excellent, and relief pitching has been their strength.
The Mets have been sliding over the last few weeks, but one never knows when that lineup led by Beltran, Reyes, and Wright could catch fire and start lighting it up. They now have Pedro Martinez to assist Tom Glavine and John Maine in the rotation, but their poor setup relief may be their eventual downfall. If they can get the ball to Billy Wagner with the lead, it could be smooth sailing in a weak NL. That’s easier said then done.
Somebody has to win the NL Central, so why not the lovable losers, the Cubs. They have a lot of power in their lineup led by Alfonso Soriano and Aramis Ramirez, but their pitching has been downright schizophrenic. Carlos Zambrano has been up and down this year, especially after he signed his new contract. The ace has actually been Ted Lilly, and Hill and Marquis make up the rest of the starters. The bullpen has been very shaky, and it doesn’t seem like Ryan Dempster, Bobby Howry, or Carlos Marmol want to close out games.
The Brewers have gone on a tailspin since June, but led by Prince Fielder and star rookie Ryan Braun, they remain in the NL Central race. The injury problems that Ben Sheets has had has been a huge blow to the Milwaukee staff, and they may not have enough left in the tank this year, but their future is quite bright.
San Diego could pose a huge scare to a lot of postseason teams if they can actually score. The lineup hasn’t been that great, but the triumvirate of Peavy, Young, and Maddux matches up with any team in baseball, and their bullpen of Heath Bell setting up Trevor Hoffman is tough to stop. If they can find a way to score, watch out.
The Phillies are almost the opposite of the Padres, with no pitching and a huge offense. Howard, Utley, Burrell, and co have almost gotten to the point where they know that the pitching will be bad and they have to come back and score a ton of runs to win. If they reach the playoffs, that could be a dangerous factor.The Colorado Rockies are in the discussion for a postseason berth, which would be great for longtime loser Todd Helton. Like every Colorado team, they can hit with the best of them led by Garrett Atkins and rookie Troy Tulowitzki, but after Jeff Francis their starting staff consists of Josh Fogg and Ubaldo Jimenez. Yikes. So enjoy the last week of the regular season as we gear up for October baseball. There’s really nothing like it.