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Saturday, December 1, 2007

NFL Daily Presents: Week 13 ATS

I have a headache, so I'll go through this quickly while analyzing and being brilliant like I always am. Man, did Omar Minaya have a headache the whole last week or what? It's hard to think when your head hurts. Now I know how Omar and Miss Teen South Carolina felt. I digress.......

-The Chiefs need to win this game at home, and they'll once again rely on Kolby Smith to do so. Sorry, not this time. Look for LT to ratchet up his effort in a game they must have, and look for Antonio Cromartie to do some damage on D. Bolts plus the 5.
-I trust Tennessee right now as much as I trust the local burglar right now. They can't get anything done on offense with both VY and the running game slumping. Look for Matt Schaub to have a good day and look for the Texans to pull the upset on the nosediving Titans.
-The Jaguars are on a roll, the Colts may still be without some of their good players. Jacksonville will do their best to control the clock, and I say that they'll at least cover and perhaps win the game outright. Call me crazy, but the Jags are the AFC's 2nd best team right now. Big "show me" game for J-Ville.
-The Skins will be playing with emotion and heavy hearts, and Buffalo will be playing without both Marshawn Lynch and Anthony Thomas. Look for Jason Campbell to wing it against Buffalo (I can't think of a better joke, my head hurts) and look for Washington to remain in the thick of the NFC Wild Card race with a win over the Bills and the 6 point cover.
-Who's playing QB for the Panthers? Who cares, unless they give Steve Smith the ball the entire game, they can't even beat Trent Dilfer and the Niners. Look for Frank Gore to have a big day and Frisco pulls an upset, causing a Carolina uproar and riots in the streets calling for John Fox's head on a stick.
-An enormous game on the schedule pits the Vikings and the Lions, two teams going in the opposite directions. Adrian Peterson's health will be a huge factor; if he can run it, it'll take the pressure of off Tarvaris Jackson up against an opportunistic ballhawking Detroit defense. If Air Martz's crew can get anything on the ground, Jon Kitna and his god squad will have a divine experience at Minnesota's expense. I have a feeling that the Minnesota defense won't do what they did last week, and I don't trust their dormant offense, so I'm taking the Lions for the win. (circle gets the square, with Gilbert Gottfried)
-I can't see a team going 0-16 in the modern era, and the Phins will do it tomorrow at home against the rival Jets. Gang Green fans will be embarrassed for about a day and then realize that the loss was for the greater good of the franchize. For draft purposes, this is a must-lose game, and the Jets will come up big (or small) and lose to Miami plus the 2.
-The Rams were finally putting it together last week, and an almost win against Seattle is good enough for a victory over the Falcons. Gimme STL and the 5.
-The Eagles looked fabulous against New England last week, but will they be deflated by their loss to the Patriots? I'll say yes, and bet on the Mo Morris-Shawn Alexander combo being too much for Philly to handle. Seattle pulls the road upset.
-The Saints need to win this game in order to stay in the NFC South mix, but the Bucs have been too good this season and New Orleans has been way too inconsistent, and my money is on Tampa to put on a good performance defensively on the ground, and running the football with Earnest Graham. Bucs lock up the dirty dirty with the win.
-The Browns are playing really good football, and Kurt Warner can't stay out of his own way. Look for Cleveland to survive in the desert, and come out sitting pretty in the wild card picture.
-For the rest of my picks, I'll take Denver, the Giants, Pittsburgh, and the Patriots with all those glorious points. Enjoy football, I'm going to the medicine cabinet.

Tuesday, November 27, 2007

NFL Daily Presents: Analytical Assault Week 12

Before I get to the post with analysis from Matt Williamson and Keith Kidd, I'd like to take a minute to talk about Sean Taylor. As a diehard Cowboys fan, I never liked Taylor; I'd even go as far as saying that I despise Taylor and hoped that he would be injured so that he wouldn't play an amazing safety for the hated Washington Redskins. Sometimes I joke that it would be amazing if this guy gets harmed or that guy gets hurt, but I never really meant it or anything. So I felt bad when I heard the news that Taylor got shot, and I felt even worse when he passed away. From now on I'll try my hardest to take things into context and realize that these players on your bitter rivals have lives outside of the games on the field. They may have wives and children and parents who care for them. So the next time you talk about the certain player on your rival that you hate (everyone has them) maybe think again and remember that it's just a game and you would never want that person to actually get hurt, or worse become another needless victim like a Sean Taylor. I'm sure that many Red Sox fans hated Thurmon Munson with a passion, but never wished that he'd die in a plane crash. So let's try to take things in perspective as we mourn the loss of a damn good football player and someone who was finally coming into his own as a human being. I'll only do the Sunday and Monday games in the assault.

-The Titans are nosediving. Their defense is finally breaking, the running game is falling apart, and Vince Young cannot carry this team. The Bengals were able to stop the run, keep VY in check, dominate the clock with Rudi Johnson, and get a stellar day from Chad Johnson. Cincy had 38 passes and 36 runs, which is nearly perfect. I asked Williamson if the Bengals can go on a run starting this Sunday against Pittsburgh.
"Was thinking that. PGH is the better team, but that game is certainly winnable for Cincy next week. Under the radar-Cincy has SHUT DOWN opposing running games of late!!!"
Willie Parker should take notice, and Tennessee is playing themselves out of this playoff picture. -The Browns keep winning, and Jamal Lewis keeps their offense moving. He's the man behind the scenes with Derek Anderson getting all the headlines; impressive against a Texans team that was good against the run. Kellen Winslow was spectacular, and the Cleveland defense forced 3 turnovers. With a running game that good, it gets to be a lot easier in the 4th quarter. Lewis wore Houston down and they were able to pull away to continue one of the surprise stories.
-There's a certain reason why New York grew sour on Herm Edwards. Oh yeah, it's because his late game decision making is atrocious. He had the chance to tie the game with 4th and 1 deep in Raiders territory, went for it and missed. A field goal keeps you in the game, but Edwards decided to go for the jugular and wasn't even close and the Chiefs suffered a critical loss. His clock management has also been criticized, and now people are questioning his mental capacity. He wasted a phenomenal Kolby Smith game and a game where Brodie Croyle didn't screw everything up. Meanwhile, Justin Fargas is emerging as a really quality back and almost singlehandedly gave Oakland their first big win since the Carter administration.
-It's more than injuries and lack of talent for the Rams, it's the terrible decision making by Scott Linehan and the coaching staff. They had every single opportunity to win this game and blew it. People will look to the dropped snap on 4th down, but St Louis should have won the game wayy before that. Linehan should be canned immediately after their nightmare season is over. Pound Stephen Jackson by the goal line, not put your game in the hands of Gus Frerotte. Seattle played very well in the 2nd half, but were not impressive at all after looking good in previous weeks.
-I met Eli Manning on the street wearing a purple shirt, and he was completely freaked out. I told him that I was the Vikings and he started throwing footballs at me. It's like a reaction at this point. What really led to Manning's total collapse was that without Jacobs and Ward, Minnesota had zero respect for the run and the play-action pass, which is how the Giants get most of their big plays. In addition, Plaxico Burress cannot play effectively right now and Minnesota disguised their coverages just enough to turn the game into a purple pigskin pick six party. That was basically the game right there, and rumor has it that the Bears are adding a purple alternate jersey for next week's game.
-The Redskins were sliding even before Sean Taylor's untimely death, as they turned it over 6 times, dropping the ball more than a corporate executive with short term memory loss. The Bucs had 25 minutes of possession on mostly short fields and won without getting a first down the entire 2nd half. There's still a lot of fight in Washington, and they'll be playing a lot harder in the future. Tampa's legit, though.
-Stick a fork in John Fox and the Panthers, I'd like my piece burnt so I don't have to look at all the potential they had. Carr and Moore were awful, Steve Smith led the team in rushing with 22 yards, and they let the Saints control the ball for over 39 minutes. New Orleans punished with Carolina with the run and then hit the big plays with excellent balance. Is it too late for the inconsistent Saints? All bets are off, I can't solve these guys.
-The Bills aren't the same without Marshawn Lynch. They had to rely on JP Losman, and they can't win like that. Fred Taylor was great, and David Garrard is evolving into a real QB. Look Jeppetto, he's a real QB eat that Leftwich! Buffalo needs Lynch back if they want a shot at the playoffs, but the Jags have a shot at a first round bye and I'm not crazy.
-The Niners can't lose to the Cardinals. Kurt Warner's a good player, but sometimes he can't get out of his own way. Neil Rackers was very unclutch in OT, but the Arizona offense clicked really well. Unfortunately, the defense took a day off on Sunday. Frisco finally gave Frank Gore more than 20 yards, and the 49ers won. What a coincidence, and even Trent Dilfer had a good game. This game confuses me, let's go to the next one which actually contains meaning.
-Todd Sauerbrun insisted on kicking on kicking to Devin Hester, which is the worst decision since Herm Edwards decided to.....and the Iraq War before that. I'll give the Bears credit for the comeback in the end, but they would not have been in that position if Denver kicked it away from him. Cutler and Andre Hall had good games, but their defense imploded late. They're still in this race, but how realistic are the playoff chances for the Bears and Vikings? Williamson has the answer:
"Much better now than a week ago, but still it is a long shot; especially for Minny. How many times are they going to get 3 defensive TDs? I still like the Giants' chances. Maybe NO? What a mess in the NFC now."
-That Chargers swagger is back, and the Ravens' window of opportunity with this team they have now has slammed shut. The Bolts had good balance, and Phil Rivers tore up the Baltimore secondary. But why in the name of Rex Ryan would Antonio Gates be covered by a LB the entire game? 6-105 and two scores later, it was 29-7 and San Diego got their classy back.
-Oh man, the Patriots were nervous, the Eagles figured them out. Run inside routes down the middle of the field, and you can torch the New England secondary. It was so apparent that even Captain Obvious Frank Caliendo err John Madden was saying it 150 times. The Eagles played well, but the Pats persevered. It was a fantastic score for score game, but how will Belichik adjust to what AJ Feely and the Eagles did to his defense? Keith Kidd has the answer:
"One of the ways is to play more inside of the WR, and force more outside throws. But it is obvious if you can keep your QB upright in the pocket it causes problems for the secondary."
-The Dolphins just may pull this 0-16. Nobody could do anything last night, and the Steelers don't look as good as they did a couple of weeks ago. Miami is down to their 87th string RB, and even Ricky Williams made a guest appearance only to be out for the season roughly five minutes after his debut; word has it that he's charging a dime bag for his 2007 season cameo. Cameo Cameron may be riding this imperfect storm, but the Jets will give them a run next week.

Around The Majors- Tuesday

Tuesday baseball is on SOS2 today and myself and the entire SprungOnSports network mourn the tragic loss of Sean Taylor today. Onto some baseball, where talks are heating up and some things just never change. MLB.com's Top 50 prospects countdown also continues.

11:30am EST
-The Yankees and Twins are indeed talking about a Johan Santana trade but they are in the super preliminary stages according to Hank Steinbrenner. In a radio interview this morning, ESPN's Buster Olney said that both teams have barely gotten off the ground in these talks, and other teams have had similar conversations as well.
-Mike Hampton is once again injured. Once thought to be a lock for the Braves rotation next season, Hampton injured his hamstring in the Mexican Winter League last week, and bleeding outside the muscle makes it unclear when he'll return to the mound. "Now we just have less of an indication of where Mike is in his comeback," Braves general manager Frank Wren told MLB.com. "The good news is that he was ecstatic about how his arm felt and how he commanded his pitches." Hampton has not pitched since the 2005 season.
-The Astros added a piece to their bullpen yesterday, inking righty Doug Brocail. The signing will be announced today. The 40 year old was 5-1 with a 3.05 ERA in 67 games for the Padres.
-The Boss was very vague when the Twins asked him for his list of untouchables, says the New York Post. The Mets have shown interest in Shawn Chacon and Octavio Dotel for their bullpen. -The Yankees have reached out to David Riske, says the Newark Star-Ledger.
-According to Newsday, the Mets have the option to nontender the contract of Johnny Estrada, making him a free agent and saving 3.2 million dollars which they could give to another team in a deal for a catcher like Gerald Laird, Ramon Hernandez, Brian Schneider, or Bengie Molina.
-The Angels and Marlins are still arguing over a combination of prospects, according to the Los Angeles Times. Dodgers GM Ned Colleti said that Joe Torre could be the team's only big acquisition. Florida is asking too much for Cabrera and talks have stalled with the Orioles regarding Erik Bedard.
-The Royals are denying a Dominican report that said that KC and Jose Guillen have agreed on a 1 year deal. GM Dayton Moore said that Baltimore is still in the mix. Yasuhiko Yabuta will take a physical with the Royals and then officially announce his signing. (KC Star)
-Seattle may be the clear favorites for Hiroki Kuroda, but the Phillies are going strong after Randy Wolf, says the Philadelphia Inquirer.
-The Rockies are talking about resigning both Matt Herges and Yorvit Torrealba, according to the Denver Post.
-The Diamondbacks are waiting to hear back with a counter offer from Hiroki Kuroda, says the Arizona Republic.
-Aaron Rowand could return to the White Sox, according to the Chicago Tribune. The White Sox are also interested in Cesar Izturis.
-The Brewers are going after Dotel, Troy Percival, and Eric Gagne. (Milwaukee Journal Sentinel)
-Talks are intensifying between Boston and Minnesota about Coco Crisp.
-The Dodgers are now going after Kuroda, says the LA Daily News. -The Cubs, Astros, and Rockies are the frontrunners for Kaz Matsui. Kerry Wood wants to close for the Cubs. (Daily Herald)
-The Cardinals are going after Carlos Silva and Kyle Lohse. The Cards could also be looking to trade Scott Rolen. (St Louis Post-Dispatch)
-The Dodgers expect Jeff Kent back next season. (Orange County Register)
-The Yankees are trying to make an offer to trade for Ron Mahay. (Atlanta Journal-Constitution)
-The Boston Herald reports that the Red Sox will be allowed to carry 28 players for their series in Japan against the A's as they are starting the season with a 19 day road trip. As a Yankee fan I believe that's BS, because they weren't able to do that when they went and started the season terribly. Let's give the BoSox all the advantages!

MLB.com's Top Prospect Countdown 31-40
Some players that made a difference in last year's 31-40 include Erick Aybar, Jarrod Saltalamacchia, James Loney, John Danks, Yunel Escobar, Jacoby Ellsbury, Hunter Pence, Felix Pie, and Daric Barton. WOW.

40) Luke Hocheaver- RSP- KC
-The 2006 #1 overall pick didn't do as well as expected in AA and AAA last year, going 4-9 with a 4.68 ERA in 27 games (26 starts). He pitched well in 4 games in the bigs last year and can throw 4 pitches for strikes. He'll be up sometime next season.
39) Chris Volstad- RSP- FLA
-The 20 year old 2005 first rounder has a heavy sinker that gets a lot of ground balls, and pitched pretty well last year in hi A and AA. He went 12-11 with a 4.16 ERA in 28 starts but does give up a lot of hits. He has a very good curve and change and should be up sometime next season.
38-) Elvis Andrus- SS- TEX
-The 19 year old top SS spect was traded from the Braves in the Teixeira deal and is a great defender with speed who is still working on his hitting. In hi A last year, Andrus had a .257-5-49-.338 season with 40 steals in 55 attempts. He could be in the majors in 2009, and has the tools to be special.
37) Ross Detwiler- LSP- WSH
-The Nats' top pitching prospect was their first round pick this year with a 2 seam and 4 seam fastball, a curve and a change. He pitched well in 9 games last year in Rookie and A ball, and even pitched an inning for the big club. His sample size is small, but he could be up for good in 2009.
36) Scott Elbert- LSP- LAD
-He has amazing potential with his high 90's heater with a curve and a change, but had to have shoulder surgery that ended his year in AA after just 2 starts. He's still just 22 and will be back in AA next season. ETA:2009.
35) Max Scherzer- RSP- ARZ
-The 2006 first rounder and Scott Boras client held out until this past May, but was fantastic when he finally played. The 23 year old went 6-4 with a 3.28 ERA in 17 starts in A and AA with very few hits and a whole lot of k's. Upper 90's fastball and good slider, he could be up next season.
34) Joey Votto- 1B- CIN
-The Canadian lefty is ready for the show and a huge career at the GABP. In AAA he went .294-22-92-.381 and played 24 games for the Reds, hitting .321 with 4 homers and 17 ribs. Did I mention he also stole 17 bags in the minors? He's ready to start at first right now.
33) Andy LaRoche- 3B- LAD
-Adam's little bro did very well for himself last year, batting .309 in AAA and playing 35 games in the big leagues. A right handed hitter who is patient and loves to walk, and has been rumored in trades because the Dodgers have no room for him right now. He'd be a valuable asset to any team that plays him, though.
32) Reid Brignac- SS- TB
-He's the Rays shortstop of the future, and can hit for power with speed. In AA last year, Brignac went .260-17-81-.328 with 15 steals. Though he did walk a decent amount, he needs to get on base more in order to elevate his value. He'll be up next September and will be up in 2009 for good.
31) Chris Marrero- OF- WSH
-He's 19 and can flat out rake. A typical big power hitter, Marrero batted .275 with 23 homers and 88 ribbies in 2 A levels with an OBP that needs to be worked on. He strikes out a lot, but has big league power right now and will be a September callup.

Monday, November 26, 2007

Around The Majors- Monday

Before I get to baseball, my thoughts and prayers are with Redskins Safety Sean Taylor, who is in critical condition after being shot in Florida. But now to the less important matters of the baseball world including news, rumors, and a look at the first day on MLB.com counting down the 50 greatest prospects in the game. Today is 41-50, and if you don't think it matters, you're dead wrong. Kevin Kouzmanoff, Jason Hirsh, Kevin Slowey, and Adam Jones were in the 41-50 range and made an impact for their respective clubs.

-This just in, the Cubs have just announced that they've given Kerry Wood a 1 year contract. Ken Rosenthal has reported his deal is worth 4.2 million.
-Indians reliever Juan Lara was involved in a serious car accident in the Dominican when his SUV was struck by a motorcycle. He played most of the year in AAA but was in the majors late in the season. The AP has reported that Lara will need surgery in the US.
-It was certainly interesting when the Reds signed Francisco Cordero last week to a 4 year, 46 million dollar deal. That seems like too much for me. He was inconsistent in the last hitters park he pitched in (Texas) and the GABP is a hitters paradise. We'll see, but I'm a bit leery of the transactions. Then again, look who else is out there. Are you still thinking? Exactly my point.
-This is for all you Brewers fans out there. Former manager Jerry Royster has become the first ever foreign skipper in Korea, as he has signed to manage the Lotte Giants. How the "mighty" have fallen.
-The Marlins are not budging from their stance of wanting four legit players from the Angels, who would be the best candidates to get Miguel Cabrera right now. (Fort Lauderdale Sun-Sentinel)
-Bobby Kielty's situation hinges on what Boston does with Coco Crisp. The Twins, Braves, White Sox, and Rangers are interested. (Boston Herald)
-The Winter Meetings are coming up, and Johan Santana will be a main subject. (The Free World)
-Phil Rogers reports that the Yankees and Red Sox would be very interested in Dan Haren.
-The Rays are very interested in Cesar Izturis, according to the St Petersburg Times. The Nationals are still interested in Elijah Dukes
-Pittsburgh has inquired about Matt Clement, says the Pittsburgh Post Gazette.
-Arizona may let Tony Clark go and replace him with Mark Sweeney. (East Valley Tribune)
-The St Paul Pioneer Press reports that a Matt Garza trade to Tampa for Delmon
MLB.com Top Prospects 41-50
50)Dexter Fowler- CF- COL
-He was a rising star in the Fall League this year after a decent season at high A Modesto. He batted .273 but had a .397 on base. His ETA is 2010.
49)Austin Jackson- OF- NYY
-Jackson shows a nice amount of power, belting 13 homers in mostly A ball this year and swiped 33 bags with a .370 OBP. He has to cut down on his striekouts but has very good potential. ETA 2010, but could be sooner.
48-)Carlos Triunfel- SS- SEA
-17 years old and already in high A! He batted .296 which is promising, but had a low on base and got caught stealing more than he had SB's, but scouts are in awe of his raw talent and amazing SS arm. ETA 2010.
47)Johnny Cueto- RSP- CIN
-Scouts have him just behind Homer Bailey among team pitching prospects. Was 12-9 with a 3.07 ERA in 28 starts between A, AA, and AAA. He had 170 strikeouts to only 34 walks, and only gave up 11 homers in 161 innings. The 21 year old has a mid 90's fastball, a slider, and a change. He should be in the majors this coming season.
46)Jeff Clement- C- SEA
-Clement put up a solid .275-20-80-.370 year in AAA and hit 2 homers in 9 games with the big club. He's ready for the bigs hitting-wise now, but his defense is a liability and they have Kenji Jojhima behind the plate.
45)Radhames Liz- RRP- BAL
-Liz put up a very good year as a starter at AA, going 11-4 with a 3.22 ERA in 25 starts, with a 2.25-1 K-walk ratio. He was then brought up to the O's as a reliever and spot starter and didn't do so well. It seems like his future is as a reliever, and has to work on lingering command issues. 44)Tyler Colvin- LF- CHC
-The Cubs first round pick in 2006 didn't disappoint last year, batting .299 with 16 jacks and 81 RBI's between A and AA. His K's and OBP weren't good, but he stole 17 bases in 22 tries. He needs to be more patient at the plate though, and could be a late summer call-up if he starts off well.
43)Jeremy Jeffress- SP- MIL
-The 20 year old 2006 first rounder went 9-5 with a 3.13 ERA in Middle A, and held hitters to a .201 batting average against. His fastball approaches 100, and is working on a slider. He was suspended 50 games for drugs, and we'll see how he adjusts to that. He'll be back in June, ETA 2011.
42) Alcides Escobar- SS- MIL
-The 20 year is also a speedster with very good defense but only has a .331 OBP. Hit .306 between A and AA with 22 steals, didn't strike out too often, but didn't have many walks. ETA 2009.
41)Ian Stewart- 3B- COL
-Everyone knows Stewart has talent, but he's been hampered by injuries and he has nowhere to play for the Rockies. Atkins and Tulo aren't going anywhere. He put up good numbers in AAA, not so good in 35 games in the bigs. With Kaz Matsui unlikely to return, Stewart played some second base in the instructional league and that is perhaps his calling.

College Hoops Monday

My top 25 and a preview of tonight's games. Let's get to it.

SprungOnSports Top 25
1)UCLA- Beat Maryland and Michigan State to leapfrog UNC.
2)UNC- Good wins, Bruins had better.
3)Kansas- Win over Arizona jumps them to third.
4)Memphis- They beat Arky State to keep it going.
5)Georgetown- Beat Ball State, did nothing wrong.
6)Washington State-3-0 this week when everyone else lost.
7)Duke- Their huge win over Marquette shoots them up to 7th.
8)Texas- Win over Tennessee was huge for the Longhorns.
9)Louisville-Their loss to BYU not as severe as the rest of the losers.
10) Texas A&M- Beat Washington and Ohio State to shoot up.
11)Tennessee- Would have dropped further, but Texas is a very good team.
12)Indiana- Loss to Xavier knocks them out of the top 10.
13)Marquette- They lost to Duke, put destroyed OK State
14)Michigan State- Also losers to the Blue Devils, but they had a tough time with Oakland.
15)Butler- Michigan, VaTech, and Texas Tech all fall to AJ Graves and co.
16)Oregon- Loss to Saint Mary's knocks them down a few spots.
17)Pittsburgh- Keeps the wins coming, quietly moving up.
18)Gonzaga-Loss to Texas Tech knocks them down as well.
19)Clemson- Everyone lost above them, and they smacked Gardner-Webb by a lot.
20)Arkansas- Debuts with a big win over VCU.
21)NC State- Beat South Carolina and Villanova
22)Wisconsin- Beat Georgia, and is here for now.
23)Kansas State- Loss knocks them back to 22nd.
24)Stanford- Beat Yale and Colorado State to debut at 24.
25)Kansas State- Loss to George Mason puts them on notice.

Monday Preview
No SOS top 25 teams in action tonight, but some good matchups nonetheless. UConn will host Florida A&M at 7pm on ESPN Full Court. Ohio plays a good match at Holy Cross, Temple battles Akron, and Davidson plays Appalachian State in a battle of hoops and gridiron upsetters. The ACC/Big 10 Challange begins tonight at 7pm as Wake Forest visits Iowa on ESPN2. Nortre Dame will get a test from Colgate, Houston will host Coastal Carolina, Arizona State will entertain Cal Poly, and Washington will host Long Beach State.