NFL Daily Presents: Analytical Assault Week 4

Lots of storylines to get to as usual, and input from Matt Williamson of Scouts' INC.

- Since the Falcons signed Byron Leftwich, Joey Harrington has been a different player. He was 22/29 with 2 TD tosses as Bobby Petrino got his first win over the Texans, where Matt Schaub was looking to exact revenge on his former club. He did well, but Atlanta controlled the clock for almost 35 minutes, and were 7/15 on 3rd down in the win. Sadly, even the Dirty Birds are in this NFC South race.
- The Bills-Jets game was one of the most pathetic matchups I've seen in quite a while. It was scoreless at halftime, but not in an exciting way. Pennington went 32/39, but he threw 2 picks and can't lead his team down the field in a two minute drill because his arm is an obvious liability. If he doesn't put up some wins soon, especially against the Giants next week, many will call for Kellen Clemens to be the starter. I say, why wait so long? Start Clemens now, and don't throw this season away. The rushing game was once again on the fritz, and the defense couldn't stop Trent Edwards and Lee Evans. Buffalo is not very good, and it speaks volumes to how dire the situation is for Gang Green. It may only be week 5, but in the strong AFC, the season is on the brink for the Jets. And how right was Chris Collinsworth in week one when he said that the AFC East race was over after the Jets lost to New England at home? Big ups to Collinsworth on that one.
- Can anyone figure out the Cleveland Browns? They go from terrible to tremendous at a staggering rate, and could hang around the playoff picture. They did a great job capitalizing on turnovers, including a 78 yard TD strike to Braylon Edwards, and scoring after a fumbled return. Special teams are killing the Ravens this season. Derek Anderson only threw 18 times, but had a staggering 11.3 yards per attempt which more then offset an average day from Jamal Lewis. On the Baltimore side, it's always trouble when Steve McNair has to throw it 53 times to only 20 rushes. The Ravens have to play much better against division opponents or they're going to find themselves on the outside looking in faster than anyone expected.
- Matt Mosley said something to the degree of The Greatest Show On Turf officially switching to the other sideline as Dallas dominated a battered and bruised Rams team that may have already seen their chances go out the window. Tony Romo had an incredible run for a first down, caped off that drive with a TD run, and started the 2nd half by throwing 3 straight TD tosses to put the contest out of reach. Not only do the Cowboys lead the NFL in points scored, they also lead in turnover differential; something vastly overlooked by numerous league pundits. Dallas possesses a dizzying array of weapons, and it was Patrick Crayton's turn to have a career day. Marc Bulger is obviously suffering from rib injuries, and if you're Scott Linehan you may want to surrender the battle (this season) to win the war (the duration of his career). The St Louis coach definitely did the right thing by pulling him in the 4th after throwing an interception to Ken Hamlin. The Rams offense looks dormant, and there's little hope for them this season.
- The "vaunted" Bears defense allowed 34 points in the 4th quarter (an all time record) as the Lions ripped victory out of the hands of defeat. John Clayton joked that the Bears may want to start snapping it to Devin Hester and just allowing him to run. Once again, the incredible lack of pass-run balance ended up in a loss for a team. 52 throws for Brian Griese (3 INT's) and just 22 runs, 15 of those by overmatched back Cedric Benson. I asked Matt Williamson about who would be able to recover from their poor start, the Bears or the Chargers?
"SD for sure. Both can recover, but Chi has injury issues on top of poor execution. SD's roster is more talented."
- Daunte Culpepper will tell you that he had nothing against the Miami organization after he was traded and escorted off of the team's practice facility. But I could smell that BS from coast to coast, and he took out his rage on the seemingly helpless Dolphins defense. 2 TD passes and 3 TD runs, and they controlled the clock for over 35 minutes. When a QB only throws 12 times, and still wins by a healthy margin, it proves that the running game was ultimately superior. Oakland ran the ball 49 times at an unbelievable 6.1 yards per carry. Fargas and Jordan both played really well, but another impressive performance from Ronnie Brown should not be overlooked. That's his 2nd straight week with over 200 yards from scrimmage.
- It was Brett Favre's day and nobody was going to stop him; not even the great Vikings defense. But it was the Minnesota D that suffered from Bolts & Bears syndrome, stopping the run subsequently followed by getting shredded in the air. Common symptoms include losses, and identical 1-3 records for all 3 teams. And the 4 teams that abused the Vikes, Bolts, and Bears (Pats, Cowboys, Lions, Pakcers) are a combined 15-1. Coincidence? Another example of pass to run losers, Minnesota had 39 Kelly Holcomb passes (1 costly INT) and just 22 rushes (an inexcusably low 12 by Adrian Peterson). And is there anyone better at spreading the ball around than Favre besides for Tom Brady? 10 different receivers caught passes, and millions of Packers fans are catching 4-0 fever.
- The Niners looked flat as a pancake in a huge division game, and the 2-3 week loss to Alex Smith could prove costly as Frisco was looking to capitalize on a very winnable NFC West. Those things took a hit on Sunday, when Matt Hasselbeck was efficient and Mike Holmgren's offense had the football for over 36 minutes in the win. Deion Branch had another strong performance for Seattle, who seem to now be the clear favorites in the division. What was worse for the 49ers was how dreadful Trent Dilfer was (12/33 and 2 picks). Mike Nolan may need to rent out the old Ravens defense in which Dilfer was the QB, because it doesn't look like Frank Gore can carry this team on his back.
- It was a mixed bag for the Buccaneers, as their ship is currently headed in the right direction. Matt Williamson summed the Bucs and pitiful Panthers up pretty precisely:
"First off, the Panthers are dissapointing and Carr isn't the answer! TBay is good. How good? I think a nine win team at most in a poor division. The D is for real. Curious how the Caddy and Petigout injuries affect things. Grude(n) for Coach of the Year? Saving his job."
The running game performed well for Tampa, but their loss of Caddy Williams and OL Luke Petitgout for the season with knee injuries is potentially devastating. How devastating?
"Huge blows to that O. Still, that division isn't tough at all. "
Considering that their biggest threat has 19/41 David Carr as their QB, the Bucs could be in the driver's seat. Carolina looked flat, and the Bucs 3:1 run-pass ratio allowed the Tampa D to rest, as well as the Panther offense. If the defense is playing poorly, and the offense blows, Carolina could be stuck in a season long catch-22 that could lead to a pink slip for John Fox.
- It's the same story every week. Indy goes down, it looks like doom and despair, and they nonchalantly rally and come up with a win against a struggling Denver team. A Marvin Harrison injury (he seems OK) and an early 10-0 defecit was seen as a joke for Peyton Manning, who found Dallas Clark in the end zone twice. But why did Peyton have less than 200 yards passing? Because when your team runs the ball 37 times at 6.1 yards a clip, who needs passing? Obviosuly Denver, who ran the ball at 6.2 yards a rush but Travis Henry had as many yards on the ground as Jay Cutler had passing (131). Marlin Jackson forced two turnovers and secured another workman-like victory for the Colts.
- Keep your friends close, but your enemies closer. This old saying got former Steelers assistants Ken Whisenhunt and Russ Grimm changed their team colors to red, and made the Black & Gold green in the face as they exacted revenge on Pittsburgh with an upset win, knocking Mike Tomlin's crew from the ranks of the unbeaten. The "Warnart" QB duo provided another nice outing, but it didn't stop former USC golden boy Leinart from kvetching after the game about playing time. Arizona won this game even without Anquan Boldin, because Larry Fitzgerald picked up the slack, they got a TD on special teams, and the run defense was superb against the game's leading rusher, Willie Parker. It's a known fact that when Ben Roethlisberger has to throw the ball more then 30 times, he tends to screw up and lose. Just look at the Idiot Motorcycle Era of the Steelers last year, when Big Ben led the league in picks. He had 2 yesterday, and though Santonio Holmes had a big day, the former Steeler coaches ended up with the last laugh. Perhaps it may not look so Grimm after all in Phoenix.
- There's a shortage for the Chargers. Turnovers and a defense lacking juice was especially prevalent in the 2nd half, when the Chiefs outscored the Powderpuff Boys 24-0 in the 2nd half, making this Damon Huard offense look like the old Green-Gonzalez-Holmes-Hall days of several years ago. Larry Johnson finally played well, and rookie Dwayne Bowe had a sensational day, and got one of SOS' fantasy teams a much needed win. This game provided another example of a young QB losing a game when he has to throw too often. Subject B: P, Rivers who threw 42 times with 2 picks and a lost fumble. LT only had 20 carries when he was playing so well, and yet another pass-run ratio loss. Can you believe people have been calling for Norv Turner's head already? (Um, yes). There have been rumors going around that USC head coach Pete Carroll would take the SD job if he was given full control. Matt Williamson discussed the rumor:
"I don't have any inside info and I heard that on Mike and Mike this morning. Still, it doesn't really add up to me. Why get rid of AJ Smith? He has done a fantastic job of putting together a great roster. Well, I guess Carroll could just come in and use what is there, but I wouldn't trust him on the personnel end of things, especially over Smith."
Considering it was Smith's idea to scrap Martyball, could Carroll make any worse decisions?
- ABC may want to get their hands on this one: Extreme Makeover, Giants Defense Edition. After giving up 80 points to the NFC's two best squads, they stuff two division teams, and best the team sack record with 12. In fact, Big Blue had so many sacks, that they would make any big time corporate exec jealous. Osi Umenyiora was harder on the Eagles than the spelling of his last name, and overall the Giants put on a clinic. McNabb fumbled 3 times, but the last one was recovered and returned for a score that put this contest (or lack thereof) out of reach. Derrick Ward continues to stake his claim to the starting RB job, and Correll Buckhalter performed well in Michael Westbrook's stead. In closing, the Eagles deserved getting pounded for wearing such ugly jerseys the week before, and I applaud New York for slamming Philadelphia as a punishment. Justice was definitely served, Winston and otherwise.
- I've been saving this one up for a while, but the Patriots defense made Ocho Cinco look like Ocho Stinko. For all his trash talking this season, he was literally trahsed in the end zone in Cleveland in a loss, and his team was trashed by New England on MNF. Both teams were without their starting backs, but Sammy Morris picked up the slack, and Randy Moss continues to pull a Vince Carter with his stellar performances. Take a bow Randy, you managed to shut Chad Johnson up (for now). Soon, Moss will try to lower gas prices, balance the budget, and create alternative energy sources. Out of energy from writing all this, I'm out and you've just been assaulted.