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Monday, September 3, 2007

What The Slump?

-In March, during Fantasy Baseball Draft season, you paid big bucks to land Pujols, Mauer, Manny, Aramis Ramirez, Bay etc. You feel bad now don't you. These are a small percentage of big names that have not been as productive as you thought they would be. Ortiz, Helton, Hafner, Delgado, Jones, Rolen and Drew, and these are only the batters. Big names have emerged and big names have faltered. Confusing isn't it. Times have changed and the long ball doesn't seem as important as it used to be, but can all of these stars get old in one year?
-In 1965, the New York Yankees had the same roster as their 62,63 and 64 winning teams. The only problem was that they all started getting old. Mantle and Maris's numbers went down by a lot and the team didn't do anywhere close to what they had done in the years past. Now, some of these players are having good years (Pujols and Ortiz), we just aren't used to these numbers compared to the numbers that they have put up in previous years. Pitchers have tendency to get old quickly and that comes with injury and age. For example, Randy Johnson, Kenny Rogers, Barry Zito, Curt Schilling and Mark Mulder. All were marquee names until late. They have all gotten old very fast, and its hard to ignore. Players getting old is more confusing than teams changing closers because their Mr. Reliable had a minor injury (Brian Fuentes). The only way to know a player is actually getting old is to see how they do on back to back years. Most of these slumping players will be back next year. Here's a chart of who I think will be slumped for good and who is bound to make a big comeback year:

Slumped For Good:
  1. Scott Rolen: Injuries have plagued his last two seasons, look for him to retire within a year or two.
  2. Manny Ramirez: Has been looking to get out of Boston for a few years. Will become a DH and last another four long and non-productive seasons.
  3. Barry Zito: Big contract looked good but team doesn't help. He'll be around for a while but no more big seasons.
  4. Carlos Delgado: Usual 35 homer guy is down to 21 in September, that's not normal.

Primed to Comeback:

  1. Albert Pujols: Look for 45, 125 and a .335 average next season.
  2. Joe Mauer: Average has slid but will be back to normal next season.
  3. Travis Hafner: I have faith that he will come back strong.
  4. Dontrelle Willis: He is not done yet. Give him a 15 win season next year if he is moved.

We'll Be Seeing A lot of Him:

  1. Carlos Pena: He has had fluke years before but I think he's for real now.
  2. Prince Fielder: 40 this year, 50 next year, its a pattern.
  3. Ryan Braun: Rookie is the real deal.
  4. Eric Byrnes: The best player that your 10 year old doesn't know about.
  5. Jeff Francis: Its about time people realized that this guy could pitch.

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