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Monday, September 10, 2007

NFL Daily Presents: The NFL Analytical Assault

All the analysis of what happened week one. Get it here, now.

- The Colts defense was as good as it was last postseason. That's a very scary thought. Indy scored 31 unanswered points in the 2nd half and smothered the Saints 41-10. Bush and McAllister were held to 38 rushing yards each on 22 carries. That's unbelievable. Drew Brees only averaged 4.7 yards a completion, one of the worst single game marks ever. Bob Sanders is so good going into the box and pursuing ball carriers to make stops. Peyton Manning was good as expected, Joseph Addai looked fabulous, and Jason David of New Orleans looked lost. He got scorched, burnt to a crisp, blow torched. There seemed to have been a lot of end arounds and reverses in the game, and I asked Doug Kretz of Scouts' INC if that was going to be a trend this season from a lot of teams. "No, I think that both offensive coordinators (and head coaches) are not afraid to use "gimmic" plays. It just happened to fit these two teams."
- Jason Elam is clutch. Nothing else to it. The way he showed leadership by getting his team in position. My hats off to him. Roscoe Parrish was the special teamer that did the early damage in this one. More big plays on special teams happen in the first 2 weeks then the rest of the season. Teams usually juggle their rosters in the preseason and that's why there are so many blown coverages and fumbled returns. Regardless, JP Losman had 97 passing yards on 16 completions! Marshawn Lynch had a good game, but Lee Evans was non existent as expected. From the stats, it's amazing how the Broncos didn't blow Buffalo out. I think that the Broncos are much better then the score indicated. Watch out for them. My thoughts and prayers go out to Kevin Everett.
- Brady Quinn may be in earlier then expected, as the Browns were awful in ever aspect of the game against Pittsburgh. Jamal Lewis had 35 yards rushing, and Anderson and Frye were a combined 17/38 passing. Kellen Winslow was the only Brown who had a good game. Steelers coach Mike Tomlin said that he was going to open up the offense, and Cleveland had no answer. Willie Parker was a stud, and Big Ben threw 4 TD's to 4 different WR's. Santonio Holmes looks like he'll be finding the end zone quite often. The end didn't come fast enough for the Browns.
- Special teams cost Philadelphia a ball game. A bobbled punt by JR Reed allowed the game winning field goal with 2 seconds left. I'm surprised that the Philly fans haven't pulled a Dallas. Why haven't they shot JR yet? Green Bay's D looked very formidable and Brett Favre and the offense did just enough. Donovan McNabb will have rust, it's going to happen. The Eagles need to have patience. Brian Westbrook played well, Brandon Jackson did not. The game was even, but special teams was the theme.
- Carolina really surprised me the way they played. Delhomme was excellent, and the Panthers proved that they had receiving weapons not named Smith. Foster and Williams were tremendous, but the big story is the loss of Orlando Pace for the season for St Louis. It changes the way St. Louis runs their entire offense. Stephen Jackson can't use the left side like he would if Pace would be in there, and Bulger's protection is now greatly in question. They rely on high completion percentages when Bulger has a lot of time to step up and survey his options, this could prove very costly for St Louis. Props to the Carolina D.
- Adrian Peterson may have had more talent then anyone on either side combined. 163 all purpose yards, and the defense scored 2 TD's. Dunn was bad, Norwood was good, Atlanta made a terrible decision in starting the vet. Tarvaris Jackson didn't play too poorly, but Joey Harrington threw 2 costly picks. The Falcons are doomed.
- Cheating or not cheating would not have stopped Randy Moss and the Patriots. The Jets probably would not have scored 38 points if given 6 quarters, and it would not have mattered if the Pats spied on New York's inability to cover kickoffs. Brady was masterful and didn't even need to utilize 2nd WR Donte' Stallworth. Maroney was solid, and Wes Welker showed why the Pats gave up such a high pick to get him. I really like Jim Nantz's comparison of Welker as a faster Wayne Chrebet. He's that speedy 3rd down possession receiver with even more speed then the former Jet. Mike Vrabel was a force, and we really saw Adalius Thomas' ability to cover a receiver, even the fast Jerricho Cotchery. On the spy front, I expect the Pats to lose draft picks, a forfeit is almost 100% out of the question. In the wise words of Chris Collinsworth, "The AFC race is over." That's bulletin board material for "Mangenious" if I've ever heard of one.
- That hail mary pass at the end of regulation that Randle El almost punched in was incredible. Trent Green actually played surprisingly well. Ronnie Brown surprisingly played like garbage. Chris Chambers did a nice job, but the Dolphin defense could not stop the two pronged Skins attack of Portis and Betts, who combined for 157 on the ground. Randle El had 162 receiving yards and is trying to make up for the rest of his tenure in DC in which calling it a bust would be a tremendous understatement. Jason Campbell didn't impress me, he still has a lot to learn and a large amount of lumps to take.
- If Jacksonville has a run defense, it did an unbelievably amazing job of running away in week 1 against Tennessee. Vince Young accounted for just 100 yards total, and they still won! Chris Brown isn't even a certefiable starting back, how does Jack del Rio explain giving up a buck and three quarters to this stiff? I may be overreacting, but JDR's ass is on the line this season. He's basically riding his career on Garrard who actually did pretty well and a defense that had as poor of an outing as you'll see from a unit that's supposed to be their strength, because it's sure as hell not your running game, (72 total yards) or your passing game led by Browns reject Dennis Northcut. del Rio may want to keep his house in Jacksonville, I heard they have a nice retirement complex for the old and unemployed.
- And save a spot for Herm Edwards, will ya Jack? Speaking of jack, that's what the Chiefs did against Houston. Huard and Croyle are stiffs, and Edwards only carried LJ 10 times sticking to his policy of resting LJ and trying to suck as much as humanly possible. I said in my predictions that Andre Johnson would go off, and he did going off for a buck forty two and a score. Ahman Green did nicely, and he'll have to continue to do well so young Matt Schaub can manage this offense. Mario Williams looked great this week (unlike the two players drafted behind him) and may just end up validating getting picked first. It's going to be a loooooong year in KC.
- Jon Kitna may be on to something with the Lions. In prevous years, the Lions would not have come back against the Raiders, but Detroit rattled off 17 unanswered points for the big win. Kitna had the high completion percentage to provide optimal success for the Mike Martz attack, and Oakland was kept honest by the superb rushing effort by Tatum Bell. For a team who's defense was its apparent strength, the offense really carried the Silver & Black. Josh McCown threw for 313 and 2 scored, and top two wideouts Curry and Porter combined for 222 yards on 19 catches. Even LaMont Jordan came back from the dead to have a nice effort. Both teams played well, and there's actually a sense of optimism in the Motor City.
- Out in the Second City, the lack of offense was offensive to fans of Da Bears. They held LT to 25 yards on the ground, and their offense was putrid enough to actually cost them the contest. Grossman threw a pick, the running backs took turns losing the football most notably Ceddy Benson who was supposed to be a huge breakout star. The only thing that broke out in the minds of Chicagoans went something along the lines of "we want Thomas Jones back". Antonio Gates was really the key for the Bolts in this win, and San Diego will breath a sigh of relief to win even when playing like crap. This is one of those weeks where you just don't wanna look back at the week of film, just to concentrate on what lies ahead.
- Shawn Alexander had a solid effort, and the Seahawk defense had 5 sacks en route to their win over the Bucs. Tampa played sloppily and couldn't get enough offense. Caddy Williams was playing well before he got hurt. The Bucs are going to have some problems scoring this season, and it will ultimately be the end of the Gruden era,
- Twas a good old fashioned shootout in Dallas, and the Giants may have lost the battle and the war. Both defenses were burnt to a crisp, but Eli Manning, Brandon Jacobs, and Osi Umenyiora could miss time maybe a month for the first two mentioned. Tony Romo was sensational and the Cowboys fought off several New York comeback attempts. You could see that the Dallas defense really needs Terrence Newman to perform at its best. This may be the beginning of the end for Tom Coughlin and Big Blue. And one more thing, if you saw this game and you still think that Jeremy Shockey is better then Jason Witten, you're dead wrong. We're talking about the most underrated TE and clearly the most overrated. Witten's the better player hands down.
- School was in session as the Ravens gave us all a nice lesson in Giving A Game Away 101. They said that McNair was taken out in favor of Kyle Boller because of an injury? Hogwash, the only injury was a pain in Brian Billick's you know what. The Ravens defense was superb considering the circumstances and Rudi Johnson and Carson Palmer were held in check. But when you turn the ball over 6 times, you're going to lose the game 99 times out of 100. Great game, ugly Baltimore.
- Speaking of ugly, that's what the Niners were for 57 minutes until Alex Smith showed us a lot by orchastrating the game winning drive against Arizona. But in total, Smith and Matt Leinart were both terrible, and Frank Gore was a bust. Edge James probably had the best performance out of anyone last night. But it was a big win for Mike Nolan and co, and hopefully it won't get much worse then what happened.

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