NFL Daily Presents: Week 12 Picks ATS- The Rest

Three for three on Turkey Day, let's keep it up on Sunday.

-The Rams have been gaining steam as of late, but Seattle seems to be coming into its own after a good win over Chicago. Mike Holmgren will have his team prepared to bottle up the pass, and the emergence of Mo Morris will continue and the Seahawks will cover the 3.
-The running games will be key at the Meadowlands. Chester Taylor has to succeed for Minnesota to have any chance, and Brandon Jacobs excelling will mean that Eli Manning can go deep on the playaction where he's at his best. Both defenses are solid againt the run but weak against the past, so the battle of the trenches will decide the contest. Give the edge to the Giants.
-Without Marshawn Lynch, Buffalo doesn't stand that much of a chance against a Jacksonville defense that could feast on a one dimentional offense. The Bills will have to come up big against Taylor and Jones-Drew and win the battles on special teams. If David Garrard takes care of the ball, there seems to be too many hurdles for the Bills to jump in order to win this game.
-This is a huge game for Washington on the road in Tampa, as they try to take advantage of a Detroit loss and get in this Wild Card race. The Bucs could create some separation in the NFC South, so the stakes are pretty high. The running games are huge here, and it may come down to which QB makes the least amount of mistakes. That's where the experienced Jeff Garcia could have the edge over Jason Campbell. That being said, I'm going to take the Redskins in the upset.
-The Browns are coming off their win over Baltimore, but can't take Houston's offense lightly by any stretch the imagination. That Schaub-Johnson connection is lethal over the top, but Romeo Crennel will have his defense ready to go. This may be closer than you might think; the Texans defense silenced the Saints last week led by Mario Williams and Amobi Okoye. I'll still give the Browns the win.
-The Bengals can't get out of their own way, and Jeff Fisher will have his defense ready after getting torched by the Broncos. LenDale White will have a big day, and the Titans will run away if Vince Young cuts down on the mistakes.
-Even without LJ and Priest, the struggling Raiders have no prayer against the Chiefs. Look for a big game from Dwayne Bowe as KC gets a big win.
-The Niners are a dead team walking, and the Cards will run all over them at home.
-The Ravens need to come back from a win that they think was taken from that, and LT will take advantage of a struggling team and San Diego will pick up a much needed victory over sinking Baltimore.
-Denver's another team riding high, and I can see Jay Cutler absoultely shredding the Bears defense en route to the win. The corners will lock the top Chicago wideouts up and Cedric Benson will remain a nonfactor.
-Pats against a McNabb-less Eagles? Belichik is already dreaming of pissing everyone off by running the score up. They'll cover the 20, perhaps twice.
-Pittsburgh's really good, Miami's really bad. ESPN will wish they had a flex package.
Enjoy football!

NFL Daily Presents: Week 10 Picks ATS

Where has this last week gone? Where have my picking skills ran off to? Right now, my right picks are harder to find than a win for the Rams and Dolphins, and a certain Osama character combined. Unlike Hillary, I have opinions so here we go. Matt Williamson and Keith Kidd share some insights, and hopefully a blanket here in the chilly NY area.

-Both the Steelers and Browns are riding higher than the Fightin Illini right now, but the spread is so large. Matt Williamson chimes in:
"I see PGH handling them pretty well...as always. Clev's D will be abused this Sunday vs. both the run and pass. Clev will score points, but I also see PGH getting to and rattling DA."
Williamson is from Pittsburgh, so we may be getting a bit of an overdose on the bias here (sorry, Len) but the defense may be too much for Mister Anderson (in Dr Evil voice) and I'll take the Steelers in double digits which will ultimately mean victory for Cleveland.
-The Redskins and Eagles both struggled last week, but I saw much more doom and gloom in Philly, where the Iggles smelled worse than rancid cheesesteaks in a blowout loss to Dallas. If Portis can establish the run early, the Skins will win easy. I'll take Washington plus the four.
-Let's try to simplify this for you, the Panthers can NOT win if they don't get Steve Smith the ball more. Keith Kidd has more:
"Obviously, in each game plan, the Panthers are trying to get the ball to Steve Smith. Teams are trying to take the running game away while doubling Smith on the outside. Other players need to step up and make plays to open things up for Smith."
So if the Carolina QB (Carr, Moore, or Vinny, yikes) can't get the terrible supporting cast on offense in the act, then Steve Smith can't do well. This seems like a recipe for disaster of subprime mortgage proportions. So I'm not that bullish about the Panthers chances, despite the fact that the Falcons make the Hawks into Atlanta sports gods. I'll take the Falcons here, and if that makes the Bobcats the kings in Charlotte, God help us all.
-Speaking of godly people, the Saints are on a roll and the Rams have their horns stuck in something prickly. While the spread is around 11 points, I'm a sucker, so give me N'awlins and pass some jumbalaya and rolaids. Brees and Bush are going to run wilder than Lindsey Lohan in a hit & run.
-Miami are only 2.5 point dogs to Marshawn Madness and the Bills? Excuse me? You could have Todd Boeckman QB'ing Buffalo to this win. Buffalo is hot, the Phins are subarctic and the Bills will romp.
-Imagine this scenario: San Diego loses and the winner of Broncos-Chiefs will at least have a share of first place in the AFC West. It's frighteningly possible in what could be the saddest thing since that Bill Callahan guy tried to coach football at Nebraska (wait! you're kidding! no way he's still coaching there, right?). Keith Kidd goes through this one:
"I like Kansas City at home. Obviously, this Broncos team is not very good. I think the Chiefs defense will do enough in this game to give their offense a shorter field and give them a chance to score more points."
The Broncos were humiliated in Detroit last week, and KC will probably be without Larry Johnson in this one. And if Damon Huard isn't good tomorrow, we could see some Brodie Croyle action. That makes me wonder whether Brodie's Bunch will succeed as a nickname, it just sounds weird like the entire Brady Bunch cast sleeping with each other (wait! you're kidding!). All joking aside, I think Denver will cover 5.5 this week.
-The Titans will battle the Jags in a battle of good defenses, but I think that Tennessee will cover the spread. I don't know if J-Ville can come back so quickly after their mauling at the hands of the Saints.
-Mike McCarthy is not an idiot like Norv Turner. He will stop AP at all costs, and the Vikings have no pass defense to stop Brett Favre and the Packers. Green Bay, in Lambeau, TD plus.
-What happens when your cross a Raven with a Jail Cat? A bad football game! Wow, I'm killin it tonight. Kidding aside, I don't see anyone doing well in this game besides for Willis McGahee, and therefore I will pick Baltimore as long as they don't turn it over more than the times Gardner-Webb upset Kentucky (once).
-I love the Cowboys, and I do think that the Giants can play them close for a while, but talent will prevail and Dallas will come away with it. Flozell Adams did a tremendous job on Trent Cole last week, and will do the same against Osi Umenyiora.
-Why are the Cardinals favored against Detroit? Am I missing something? Lions win big.
-Chicago needs a win over Oakland to save their season. Why do I think they'll choke like Bush on a pretzel? Hmm, maybe because Da Bears blow this year. Raiders in the upset.
-Addai, all night, Colts win, plus the 3.5. Phil Rivers will have a bad game and I will destroy Norv Turner on Tuesday. Can't wait.
-Seahawks and Niners, what a morbid MNF'er. First team to 10 wins, I'll take the Hawks.

A-Train Express- Quick NFL Picks

Houston @ Atlanta: Matt Schaub's return is sweet as they stomp on the soon to be 0-4 Falcons.
Ravens @ Browns: Jamal Lewis tries to show the Ravens D who is boss but falls short, Ravens win.
Jets @ Bills: Thomas Jones proves that Marshawn Lynch isn't the only good RB is NY, Jets win.
Rams @ 'Boys: Didnt think this would happen but the Rams are about to start 0-4 as Romo Mania continues.
Bears @ Lions: The Lion beats the Bear in this situation. I think the stronger animal has won this battle.
Raiders @ Phins: Ronnie Brown likes playing well and he thinks it will become consistent, Phins win.
Packers @ Vikes: Favre is playing like he's 25, end of sentence.
Bucs @ Panthers: Home field goes to Carolina, pick up a win.
Seattle @ San Fran: If Alex Smith has a good game against these corners it could be pretty but Vernon Davis is out. 49ers win a close and good one.
Steelers @ Cardinals: Cards win because I like their coach and they have a pretty solid offense.
Broncos @ Colts: Peyton has a tough time dealing with Bly and Bailey. Broncos pull one off.
Chiefs @ Chargers: Chargers look Super as LT and Rivers have great games.
Eagles @ Giants: Divide the 56 points from last week by 3 and they win still beat this Giants D.
Monday Night Upset: Bengals over Pats

Sunday Football Fix

The season is only two weeks away, and the 3rd preseason game means that the players stay in the longest. I'll recap those games and go through the latest news here on the Fix.

Week 3 Recap
David Garrard outperformed Byron Leftwich as Jacksonville won at Green Bay 21-13. Garrard was 6/7 with a TD while Leftwich was 6/16. Brett Favre was a solid 14/20 and James Jones had 6 catches for 80 yards in the loss. Drew Brees was 17/19 passing as the Saints slammed the Chiefs 30-7. Pierre Thomas ran for 2 scores and David Patten caught a TD pass from Brees in the win. Titans QB's were the difference as Kerry Collins threw for 2 scores and Vince Young had a rushing and passing TD as Tennessee bested Buffalo 28-17. LenDale White had a solid game, and Lee Evans caught 5 for 100 in the losing cause for the Bills. Tom Brady celebrated his new son in style as he went 17/22 with 2 scores as the Patriots pasted the Panthers 24-7. Delhomme outperformed Carr for Carolina, and Jake threw a 48 yard TD strike to Keary Colbert in the loss. Oakland doubled up the Rams 20-10 in the battle of the former LA teams. Peyton Manning and Jim Sorgi went a combined 39/50 with 5 TD's as the Colts clobbered the Lions 37-10. Wayne, Thorpe, Clark, Moorehead, and Harrison each had TD catches for Indy. Bruce Gradkowski threw for 2 scores as the Bucs beat Miami 31-28. Rookie John Beck threw for 2 scores in the loss. Chicago beat the 49ers by the same score, as they got 3 catches for 79 yards from Bernard Berrian. The Jets jolted the Giants 20-12 in the battle for New York. Eli Manning played well, but the play of the game was a 79 yard TD connection between Chad Pennington and Leon Washington. Washington beat Baltimore 13-7 in a game that only went 3 quarters due to inclement weather. A pick 6 from Dallas Sartz was the difference in the contest. Steve McNair performed well for the Ravens. Houston downed Dallas 28-16 as Romo and Schaub each threw 2 TD's for their clubs. Ahman Green had 8 carries for 65 yards in the Texans win. Cleveland nipped Denver 17-16, as Brady Quinn had a TD pass 20 yards to Joshua Cribbs. Selvin Young and Cecil Sapp each had excellent games for Denver in defeat. Seattle mauled Minnesota 30-13. The Chargers clipped the Cardinals in a 33-31 shootout in the desert. Phillip Rivers has 20/29 for 282 and 2 TD's, both to Vincent Jackson. Anquan Boldin caught 5 passes for 143 yards, including an 80 yard score from Matt Leinart.

News and Notes
-According to Browns GM Phil Savage, Brady Quinn will not open the season as the starting QB for Cleveland. "It's unrealistic for Brady to be in the mix for the opener,"
Charlie Frye and Derek Anderson will compete for the season opening nod.
- The Falcons will seek 22 million dollars in bonuses from Michael Vick, who will be in court for a trial tomorrow. Vick was suspended indefinitely on Friday by Commissioner Roger Goodell, who had this comment about Vick's behavior.
"Not only illegal but also cruel and reprehensible. Your actions in funding the betting and your association with illegal gambling both violate the terms of your NFL player contract and expose you to corrupting influences in derogation of one of the most fundamental responsibilities of an NFL player.'' 'Nuff said.
- One team that will name a starting QB are the Chiefs, who named Damon Huard as their starter as Brodie Croyle went 5/17 passing in their last game. Somehow, those numbers don't spell starter, in spells out a nice amount of time riding the bench.
- Jacksonville signed LB Chris Claiborne to a 1 year deal.
- Dwight Freeney bruised his thigh against the Lions, and probably won't play against the Bengals on Friday.
- Carolina 3rd string QB Brett Basanez was placed on IR with a severely sprained right wrist, and will miss the entire season.

Steelers and Eagles at 8 on NBC, Bengals-Falcons tomorrow night on ESPN.

Hot Topic Thursday- N.F.L.

As the season quickly approaches and Tom Brady welcomes a new son into his life, I'll actually talk about the important stuff. Today's focus, the chances (or lack thereof) of the Cleveland Browns, and a dynamic QB controversy in Carolina. I'll be joined today by Gary Horton of Scouts' INC.

Brady Quinn has been playing for just over a week, and he already seems like the best option for Cleveland. That doesn't say a lot about Charlie Frye and Derek Anderson, who are competing with the rookie for the starting gig. The offense has some weapons in Jamal Lewis, Kellen Winslow, and Braylon Edwards, but they won't get the ball if it can't be thrown to them on a consistent basis. Though there is some talent on the club, the Browns will be in for a bad year because their talent doesn't stack up in a tough AFC North, according to Horton.
"I think they are headed for a very tough year, in a very good division, where they are not even close in talent to the other three teams."
The Bengals have an excellent offense, Baltimore has a top two defense, and the Steelers have nice talent on both sides of the ball. Horton then said that Lewis will be the key to this club, because if he fails, that means that the team will have to rely on the quarterbacks to succeed.
"Without a running game they maybe forced to lean on one of their QBs, and right now that position is up for grabs."
Like next year's election, the Browns job is up for grabs but lacks a clear cut solid candidate. Horton finished off the topic by saying that even a surprising Quinn won't get Cleveland to where they want to go.
"I just do not see them being very competitive in the North, even if Brady Quinn somehow emerges and becomes the starter."

Last week against the Eagles, David Carr was 7/13 for 111 yards and Jake Delhomme was 9/18 for 78 yards and a pick. Two weeks ago against the Giants, Carr was 6/8 for 83 yards and a TD while Delhomme was 5/8 for 30 yards and a TD. Do the math folks, the former Houston Texan and number one overall selection is flat out playing better then his counterpart Delhomme. This is causing quite the stir in Charlotte, as a QB controversy is emerging. Perhaps Carr was never able to reach his full potential with an awful O-line in Houston and is finally realizing his abilities for the Panthers. Gary Horton sums up the QB situation.
"I am still a little bit of a Delhomme fan. But I like both QBs. They are charcater guys, with good physical skills and I do not think Carr's situation is Houston was his fault. "
With a new start and a change of scenery if you will, Carr is showing what everyone thought he could always do, and Delhomme is showing his usual, erratic self. So does Carr have a shot at the starting job? Horton said that Delhomme would really have to mess up for Carr to win the job.
"But in my mind, Delhomme would have to really play lousy for a long time to lose this job, because he has been a good leader and a winner."
Delhomme is one of those players whose leadership skills outweighs his talent and performance. He's been to the playoffs multiple times and has won a conference title for Carolina. He's the best signal caller in franchise history, and that buys him a lot of loyalty and cred among his superiors on the coaching staff and in the front office. Carr still has a lot to prove, and will have to do a lot more to wrestle the job away.
"I do not think I would make that move yet. But that may become a very interesting QB situation to watch."
Very interesting, indeed. My thanks to Gary Horton for the wonderful insight.

The ongoing QB battle in Jacksonville continues on the national stage as they travel to Lambeau to take on the Pakcers tonight at 8pm eastern on FOX. The Panthers will be on CBS on Friday night at 8 eastern against New England, who may not have Brady for the game who just had his first child. Sunday night on NBC, the Steelers take on the Eagles and the Falcons and Bengals do battle on MNF on ESPN.